Poll Shows Mamdani Leading Cuomo in NYC Mayoral Primary

A new poll conducted by Emerson College, PIX11, and The Hill indicates that New York State Assembly member Zohran Mamdani could defeat former Governor Andrew Cuomo in the 2025 New York City Democratic mayoral primary. While Cuomo leads in first-round voting with 36.4% to Mamdani's 33.7%, the poll projects Mamdani would win by a 51.8% to 48.2% margin after eight rounds of ranked-choice tabulations. The survey, which has a 3.4% margin of error, sampled 833 registered Democrats including early voters.

Demographic breakdowns show Mamdani performing strongly with voters under 50, who support him by a 2:1 margin, while Cuomo leads among older voters. The poll indicates women favor Cuomo by a 52% to 48% margin, while men support Mamdani by 56% to 44%. Other candidates in the field received single-digit support, with the exception of Brad Lander, who placed third with 13.3% in first-round preferences and has cross-endorsed Mamdani.

The poll results emerge amid recent developments in the race, including Mamdani receiving an endorsement from Senator Bernie Sanders. Controversy has also arisen regarding Mamdani's statements about the Israel-Gaza conflict, with Cuomo and other moderate Democrats raising concerns about his positions. Cuomo's campaign has focused on these issues in the final stretch of the primary campaign.

Cuomo, who resigned as governor in 2021 following allegations of misconduct which he has denied, has led in most previous polls. His campaign spokesperson characterized the Emerson poll as an outlier, noting that other recent surveys showed Cuomo maintaining a double-digit advantage. A separate poll commissioned by a pro-Cuomo political action committee showed the former governor leading by a 52% to 28% margin after seven rounds of ranked-choice voting.

The primary election is scheduled for Tuesday, though final results may not be available immediately. The New York City Board of Elections will not begin tabulating ranked-choice votes until the following week, meaning the race is unlikely to be called on election night unless a candidate secures a simple majority in the first round, which analysts consider improbable.