Supreme Court to rehear case that could impact House district maps

The Supreme Court is scheduled to rehear Louisiana v. Callais on October 15, a case that centers on Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. According to an analysis by Fair Fight Action and Black Voters Matter Fund reviewed by Politico, changes to Section 2 could potentially affect up to 19 House seats through redistricting. The organizations indicate that while a ruling affecting the 2026 midterms is not certain, it remains a possibility.

Section 2 has functioned as an enforcement mechanism allowing challenges to voting maps that reduce minority voting influence through district boundaries. The Louisiana case originated when a federal court struck down the state's congressional map in 2022, determining it diminished Black voting strength. State lawmakers subsequently created a second majority-Black district to address the court's concerns. Challengers to this new map have argued that using race as a primary consideration constitutes unconstitutional racial gerrymandering, even when addressing identified imbalances.

The report suggests that states including Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, and South Carolina could experience significant redistricting changes if Section 2 protections are altered. In more competitive Southern states such as Georgia, Texas, Florida, and North Carolina, the analysis indicates the number of competitive districts could decrease. The organizations behind the report note that in some states, redistricting efforts are already underway.

Fair Fight Action CEO Lauren Groh-Wargo stated that Democrats would need to implement responsive measures if the court ruling affects redistricting processes. The report indicates that approximately 30% of Congressional Black Caucus seats and 11% of Congressional Hispanic Caucus seats could potentially be affected by redistricting changes. The organizations recommend what they describe as equally responsive measures to address potential changes to the electoral landscape.