Vance Leads Early Prediction Markets for 2028 Presidential Race

According to cryptocurrency-based prediction market Polymarket, Vice President JD Vance currently leads potential candidates for the 2028 presidential election with a 27% chance of victory. Polymarket, described as the world's largest prediction market, released these early odds more than three years before the next presidential election cycle. Vance, age 40, has previously addressed questions about a potential 2028 run during an April interview on Fox News.

California Governor Gavin Newsom holds second position in the prediction market at 14%, despite telling the Wall Street Journal recently that while he wasn't actively considering a run, he could envision such a path developing. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ranks third with 10% odds, followed by former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 8% and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 6%. These early predictions reflect market speculation rather than formal campaign announcements.

Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, who was previously considered a potential running mate for Kamala Harris in the 2024 election, currently stands at 6% in the prediction market. Former Vice President Harris and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis are tied at 4% in the seventh position. President Donald Trump, who is constitutionally limited to two terms, appears in eighth place with 3% odds despite being ineligible to run for a third term.

Prediction markets like Polymarket allow participants to place cryptocurrency-based wagers on future events, with odds fluctuating based on betting patterns. These markets represent speculative assessments rather than scientific polling or formal political analysis. The early nature of these predictions, coming more than three years before the next presidential election, means the political landscape could change significantly before any official campaigns begin.